Science Database
Database of scientific articles, analysis, academic papers and institutional reports on topics related to collapsology.
Search
9591 references
-
-
Accelerated human-induced extinction crisis in the world's freshwater mammals
Accelerated human-induced extinction crisis in the world's freshwater mammals
Display summary
Human activities have significantly impacted natural habitats and wildlife worldwide, particularly emphasizing repercussions for freshwater habitats and associated species. These negative impacts on freshwater fish are well known, but for mammal species that regularly use and dependend on freshwater systems, there is an incomplete understanding. Here, we assessed the status of freshwater and semi-aquatic mammal species inhabiting and dependent on freshwater ecosystems (hereafter referred to as freshwater mammals) and evaluated the impact of human activities on species richness both globally and by biogeographical regions. We used structural equation modeling and simultaneous autoregressive models to assess the direct and indirect effects of seven anthropogenic-related variables on overall freshwater mammal richness. Specifically, we examined the effects of anthropogenic disturbance on the richness of threatened and non-threatened species, as well as species with decreasing and stable/increasing populations. Forty-three percent of all freshwater mammal species are classified as globally threatened by the IUCN Red List, with 50% experiencing population declines. Furthermore, 48% are affected by domestic or international trade, while 75% face threats from geographically expanding human activities. Aridity, pesticide pollution, human footprint, and croplands had the strongest negative effects on freshwater mammal richness. In contrast, the coverage of freshwater habitats (FWs), Indigenous Peoples' lands (IPLs), and protected areas (PAs) helped to sustain freshwater mammal species globally, with an even stronger positive effect at individual biogeographical regions. We conclude that FWs, IPLs, and PAs play a critical role in the conservation of freshwater mammal species, helping safeguard these species from extinction, however, freshwater ecosystems are seldom the focal point of conservation management strategies. The ongoing adverse anthropogenic impacts on these natural habitats present a potentially catastrophic and irreversible threat to global freshwater environments and the species, including humans, reliant upon them. We strongly advocate for the implementation of more robust national and international policy frameworks that endorse alternative and sustainable livelihoods. Such frameworks can play a crucial role in alleviating anthropogenic pressures, thereby aiding in the mitigation of the extinction risk faced by these vital ecosystems and the world's freshwater mammal species.
-
A HANDY-type model with non renewable resources
A HANDY-type model with non renewable resources
Display summary
In this paper we study a modified HANDY model, describing interactions between nature resources and human exploitation. It is a system of four ODEs, whose vector field is non differentiable at certain points. The main novelty of our approach is the introduction of a variable describing non renewable resources, whose equation contains both a consumption and a replenishment term. We first establish the existence and positivity of solution for any time t≥0, and we get some results on the asymptotic behavior of x (population) and w (wealth). Then we compute all the equilibrium points of the system, and we study their stability. We find several stability and instability results, depending on the parameters of the system. Some numerical simulations confirm the theoretical results, and give suggestions for future research.
-
Habitable planet to sustainable civilization: Global climate change with related clean energy transition reliant on declining critical metal resources
Habitable planet to sustainable civilization: Global climate change with related clean energy transition reliant on declining critical metal resources
Display summary
It took nearly four billion years after the birth of the Earth to make our planet habitable in terms of marine and terrestrial environment, resources, and life. This was made possible because of Earth’s unique tectonic system of recycling of critical elements through plate tectonics and subduction. However, with the spiraling growth in population and fast depletion of metallic resources, modern civilization is facing a severe energy crisis, in addition to the challenges to environment and life posed by anthropogenic activities and climate change. Here we present an outline of the evolutionary tectonic and geodynamic history of Earth from its birth into a habitable planet. We briefly address the current challenges that humans face in the fields of energy, environment, resources, and climate towards achieving sustainability of our modern civilization. We also evaluate the paradox of Net Zero targets, particularly in terms of the fast depletion of non-renewable critical metals required for alternate energy, as well as the threat of increasing ‘graveyards’ from green energy toxic waste enveloping the globe. We alert the unsound concepts being propagated, as viewed from a geological scale and geoscience perspective, on global warming and sea level changes. Our study emphasizes the need for a holistic logical and well-integrated scientific approach, rather than a one-dimensional climate science view, to effectively address the challenges of the planet’s sustainability.
-
Philosophy for an Ending World
Philosophy for an Ending World
Display summary
Tim Mulgan introduces a new thought experiment: the world will end in two hundred years, and humanity faces imminent and unavoidable (but not immediate) extinction. This book presents imaginary philosophical debates and lectures within this slowly ending world. The Ending World is both a provocative thought experiment and a challenging possible future. Exploring it from within - adopting the perspective of philosophers living in that ending world - helps us to imagine this world from the inside, to evaluate it as a possible future, to discover what we owe to future people who might inhabit such a future, and to explore how we might justify ourselves to them. The book explores contemporary debates about pessimism, the meaning of life, the existence of God, the purpose of the universe, the permissibility of creating new people, the need to connect with past and future people, the rectification of historical injustice, the design of utopias, and the desirability of escaping into virtual realities. It draws on a wide range of work in contemporary philosophy - including Samuel Scheffler's discussions of human extinction, Jonathan Lear's exploration of radical hope, David Benatar's anti-natalism, work on procreative ethics by Rivka Weinberg, Melinda Roberts, and Elizabeth Harman, and the author's own previous work on collective consequentialism, future ethics, and alternative conceptions of divine purpose.A central question throughout the book is whether we could equip our descendants to flourish in an ending world, even if we cannot imagine flourishing there ourselves. The book defends an innovative account of our obligations to future people, based on the need to launch multigenerational projects to transform our inherited traditions and values so that they will still make sense even at humanity's end. , Tim Mulgan introduces a new thought experiment: the world will end in two hundred years, and humanity faces imminent and unavoidable (but not immediate) extinction. This book presents imaginary philosophical debates and lectures within this slowly ending world. The Ending World is both a provocative thought experiment and a challenging possible future. Exploring it from within - adopting the perspective of philosophers living in that ending world - helps us to imagine this world from the inside, to evaluate it as a possible future, to discover what we owe to future people who might inhabit such a future, and to explore how we might justify ourselves to them. The book explores contemporary debates about pessimism, the meaning of life, the existence of God, the purpose of the universe, the permissibility of creating new people, the need to connect with past and future people, the rectification of historical injustice, the design of utopias, and the desirability of escaping into virtual realities. It draws on a wide range of work in contemporary philosophy - including Samuel Scheffler's discussions of human extinction, Jonathan Lear's exploration of radical hope, David Benatar's anti-natalism, work on procreative ethics by Rivka Weinberg, Melinda Roberts, and Elizabeth Harman, and the author's own previous work on collective consequentialism, future ethics, and alternative conceptions of divine purpose.A central question throughout the book is whether we could equip our descendants to flourish in an ending world, even if we cannot imagine flourishing there ourselves. The book defends an innovative account of our obligations to future people, based on the need to launch multigenerational projects to transform our inherited traditions and values so that they will still make sense even at humanity's end.
-
Interconnectedness and systemic risk: Evidence from global stock markets
Interconnectedness and systemic risk: Evidence from global stock markets
Display summary
The study aims to examine systemically important stock markets in the global financial system within the scope of portfolio theory. For this purpose, we use daily stock market indices from 46 countries (23 developed and 23 developing stock markets) in North America, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa, Asia, the Pacific, Eastern Europe, and Europe between 1995 and 2021. Based on the Component Expected Shortfall (CES), we identify systemically important stock markets and use the quantile spillover analysis to examine the financial contagion and directional spillovers emanating from downside risks among stock markets. Overall, we observe stock markets of developed countries figured prominently in terms of systemic risk until the Global Financial Crisis (2007–2009; henceforth GFC), while developing country stock markets particularly those of China and India gained traction after the GFC. Moreover, we observe a shift in terms of systemic risk in recent years from the West to the East geographically. To increase global financial market resilience and improve stability, supervision, and macroprudential policies can be formulated to limit risk spillovers in global stock markets. Additionally, it is critical to diversify investments outside equity markets, such as currency, bond, gold, and oil asset classes. When considering overseas portfolio choices for diversity, investors should keep the financial spillover effects in mind.
-
The economic commitment of climate change
The economic commitment of climate change
Display summary
Global projections of macroeconomic climate-change damages typically consider impacts from average annual and national temperatures over long time horizons1–6. Here we use recent empirical findings from more than 1,600 regions worldwide over the past 40 years to project sub-national damages from temperature and precipitation, including daily variability and extremes7,8. Using an empirical approach that provides a robust lower bound on the persistence of impacts on economic growth, we find that the world economy is committed to an income reduction of 19% within the next 26 years independent of future emission choices (relative to a baseline without climate impacts, likely range of 11–29% accounting for physical climate and empirical uncertainty). These damages already outweigh the mitigation costs required to limit global warming to 2 °C by sixfold over this near-term time frame and thereafter diverge strongly dependent on emission choices. Committed damages arise predominantly through changes in average temperature, but accounting for further climatic components raises estimates by approximately 50% and leads to stronger regional heterogeneity. Committed losses are projected for all regions except those at very high latitudes, at which reductions in temperature variability bring benefits. The largest losses are committed at lower latitudes in regions with lower cumulative historical emissions and lower present-day income.
-
Guidelines for a Global Consitutional Convention for Future Generations
Guidelines for a Global Consitutional Convention for Future Generations
Display summary
This anthology combines an intercultural approach with intergenerational ethics to address critical environmental challenges. Written by scholars from all over the world, including Canada, the US, New Zealand, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Japan, the UK, China, and Spain, this book offers new perspectives on how to foster sustainable societal practises that draw on the past and are fair to future generations. It introduces the Māori idea that views all things and human generations in layered relations; Indigenous accounts of spiralling time and reciprocities among ancestors and descendants; the philosophical dimensions of Chinese conceptions of ancestor spirits and future ghosts; and African accounts of anamnestic solidarity among generations. These ideas influence proposals for how to confront ending worlds and address the environmental future of humanity, making this book a valuable resource for scholars and students of environmental law and policy, environmental humanities, political science, and intercultural and comparative philosophy, as well as policymakers.
-
Role of essential minerals in achieving low-carbon economy and sustainability
Role of essential minerals in achieving low-carbon economy and sustainability
Display summary
This study comprehensively analyzes the impact of metallic and non-metallic mineral production on the Sustainable Development Index (SDI) within the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) countries from 1995 to 2020. Both metallic and non-metallic mineral production are found to adversely affect sustainable development, with metallic minerals posing a greater threat. The research highlights the environmental risks associated with techniques like open-pit mining. Furthermore, an inverse relationship between health expenditure and sustainable development suggests potential resource diversion from critical sectors. On the other hand, a positive correlation is identified between income per capita and sustainable development, emphasizing economic prosperity's significance. The study recommends practical policies for the RCEP, emphasizing the adoption of greener technologies, financial inclusion, expansion of the green finance market, and the promotion of sustainable corporate management in mineral industries.
-
The political climate trap
The political climate trap
Display summary
We develop a simple political-economic model of a climate trap. We apply our model to gasoline taxes, which vary dramatically across countries. Externalities cannot fully account for this. Our model shows that group interests, resulting from the composition of a country s car fleet, can explain differences in gasoline taxes even among countries with identical fundamentals. Endogenous car ownership can yield multiple equilibria. This can lead to a political climate trap, where a low gasoline tax reflects the views of a majority, but another majority would benefit from transitioning to a high-tax equilibrium with fewer emissions.
-
Towards a systemic view on rebound effects: Modelling the feedback loops of rebound mechanisms
Towards a systemic view on rebound effects: Modelling the feedback loops of rebound mechanisms
Display summary
Rebound Effects (RE) are systemic responses that are relentlessly hindering the achievement of sustainability actions intended effects. Despite the wide recognition of RE, the limited understanding of the underlying causal structures sustaining their occurrence hampers the ability to anticipate, prevent, and tackle them. To explore how feedback thinking can explain the occurrence of RE, this paper describes the structure of 26 rebound mechanisms based on qualitative system dynamics (SD) modelling using causal loop diagrams (CLD). Apart from a comprehensive catalogue of mechanisms, the elicitation of two generic rebound mechanisms reveals that RE are either the result of (1) reinforcing loops acting against quick fixes to control local resource consumption or (2) balancing reactions in the opposite direction of attempts to control local resource consumption leading to escalation behaviour. Four contributions highlight how this research supports a systemic view on RE, the natural evolutionary step required to understand and manage its occurrence.